East African governments are stepping up disaster preparedness after fresh forecasts pointed to a developing El Niño weather pattern that could bring above-normal rainfall, flooding and humanitarian emergencies across the region in the coming months.
Weather experts say El Niño is a natural shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures that recurs every two to seven years, as the trade winds that push warm water westward weaken and the heat spreads back across the ocean. Uganda has become one of the first countries in the region to issue an official warning, saying a developing El Niño is likely to influence weather patterns during the September-to-December rainy season, raising the risk of floods, landslides and damage to critical infrastructure.
According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index 2021, the country is ranked 12th for vulnerability, making it highly vulnerable and ill-prepared to respond to the impacts of climate change. Kampala is among the locations in Uganda that have experienced increased flooding over the past two decades, disrupting normal activities such as mobility and causing damage to property, injuries and, at times, deaths, according to the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Other affected areas include those around rivers, lakes and wetlands, as well as mountainous terrain and urban centres where poor drainage systems have blocked waterways.
Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment said it is working with regional and international climate centres to continuously monitor developments and provide updated forecasts and early warning information as the situation evolves.
The ministry has urged governments, local authorities and communities to strengthen disaster preparedness plans, clear drainage channels, discourage settlement in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas, and prepare contingency measures in sectors including agriculture, health, transport, water resources and infrastructure.
Climate experts caution that the effects of El Niño will be felt across the region. Countries across East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and Uganda, share transport corridors, river basins and agricultural markets, making them collectively vulnerable to climate shocks. According to Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, global climate monitoring centres and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have detected an increased likelihood of El Niño developing later this year, with forecasts indicating wetter-than-normal conditions across much of East Africa.
The ministry has urged governments, local authorities and communities to strengthen disaster preparedness, clear drainage systems, protect wetlands and river catchments, and discourage settlement in flood-prone areas before the rains intensify. For a region where agriculture employs the majority of the population and contributes significantly to exports, the stakes are high. Climate specialists warn that flooding could destroy crops, interrupt harvests, wash away roads and bridges, and disrupt the movement of goods along regional trade routes linking the ports of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam with inland markets in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has warned that the strengthening El Niño could trigger severe flooding, disease outbreaks and worsening humanitarian conditions across East Africa, particularly in countries already struggling with drought, displacement and food insecurity. Somalia is expected to be among the hardest-hit countries. Forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of above-average rainfall in southern and south-western Somalia, where millions of people remain dependent on humanitarian assistance after successive droughts. Flooding in the country in 2023 destroyed almost 13,000 tonnes of crops and damaged entire towns. The aid agency warns that renewed flooding could destroy crops, contaminate water sources and worsen food insecurity.
Kenya is also preparing for an increased risk of flooding and landslides after meteorological forecasts indicated a high probability that El Niño conditions will persist through 2026. Uganda faces similar concerns following widespread flooding that affected more than 413,000 people during the last major El Niño episode. Uganda last experienced a significant El Niño event during the 2023–2024 season, which brought enhanced, above-normal rainfall, widespread flooding, damage to roads and bridges, and deadly landslides in various parts of the country, especially in eastern and western Uganda. The current climate outlook is being driven by rapidly warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasting that El Niño will continue to strengthen in the coming months. The agency says the phenomenon, combined with other oceanic conditions, is likely to amplify extreme weather across several regions of the world, including the Horn of Africa.
The WMO has urged governments to use the current forecasts as an opportunity to prepare rather than react. According to World Meteorological Organisation Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, the El Niño episode provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold.
Meteorological agencies are expected to issue updated seasonal forecasts in the coming weeks as scientists continue to monitor the evolution of El Niño. But even before the rains arrive, governments across the region are racing to invest in early warning systems, protect vulnerable infrastructure and coordinate emergency response plans.